Are they worth it?

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Conference Proceeding

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The purpose of this research is to determine if a current professional football player’s performance in the National Football League (NFL) during their designated contract period was worth the money spent. In Major League Baseball (MLB), getting players on base has proven to naturally produce runs needed to win games. Similarly, it would be logical to say that there is a correlation between total yards produced by a team in a season and the number of wins the team achieves in a season. This correlation will be used to help assign a monetary value to each yard and win for each respective team. A contract analysis of players of similar age and production over a designated period will help determine which player contracts were worth the money they were paid. The final step to this research is to determine at what age a player is expected to see a decline in production using an aging curve. Additionally, this research is meant to predict the future performance of a football player in the NFL to determine an adequate contract value and length during contract negotiations. Survival analysis will be used to analyze the expected duration for a player to perform as expected and when to expect a decline in production.


Presented at the 7th Annual Conference of the Upstate New York Chapters of the American Statistical Association in Rochester, New York, April 21, 2018.

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